This archive report was first published on 5 July 2020.
Kenya's struggle against Covid-19 has taken a concerning turn, with a record low in recoveries reported in Week 16 (June 26 to July 2) of the pandemic. According to a Nation Newsplex analysis, only 232 people were reported to have recovered from the virus during this period, the lowest number in four weeks.
This decline in recoveries comes as the country's average number of new cases continues to grow, with 222 people reported to have contracted the virus in the same period. The Ministry of Health announced on July 2 that 20 people recovered, the lowest number in a month, coinciding with the highest number of infections in a day, 307, reported on July 1.
The divergence between the infection and recovery curves has introduced a worrying trend, which, if not disrupted, may lead to a huge active Covid-19 caseload and overwhelm the healthcare system. Kenya ranks 10th in Africa in number of cases (7,577) but climbs up five places to position five in number of active cases (5,182), indicating a stubborn virus that seems to hang around for a longer period.
Kenya's death rate of two per cent mirrors the continent's share of infections that have resulted in death. Many of the active cases in the country might be people who contracted the virus in the past few days and may not have had enough time to recover. The World Health Organization states that people with a mild attack of Covid-19 recover in about two weeks, while those with severe or critical versions of the disease take about three to six weeks to expel the virus from their body.
However, the fact that some countries have reported high numbers of infection but managed to maintain relatively low figures of active cases necessitates a re-examination of Kenya's Covid-19 treatment and management approach. About seven in 10 (68 per cent) of Kenya's reported cases are active, higher than the continent's 50 per cent. The country has a recovery rate of 30 per cent, the 15th lowest rate in the continent.
Chief Administrative Secretary for Health, Dr Rashid Aman, noted that 78 per cent of infected persons admitted to hospitals are either asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic, and can be managed at home, provided proper procedures are followed. The Jitenge System was introduced to relieve health facilities of the mounting pressure brought about by the rapid growth of community transmission of the virus.
However, even though the sharing of the disease burden between health facilities and communities would guarantee hospitals a lifeline, spreading out a high number of active cases into households might not yield the desired results if the guidelines are breached. The government has repeatedly warned that indiscipline and a laissez-faire attitude are the biggest impediments to containment.
According to the general trend displayed by countries that have gone past the most devastating stages of the disease's progression curve, the journey to the peak involves a general growth of new case, death, and recovery numbers reported every day. Kenya's Health director-general, Mr Patrick Amoth, has downplayed the concern, stating that the recovery rate should not worry people, and that they should focus on the case fatality rate, which will tell them the quality of care provided to the people.
