This archive report was first published on 28 June 2020.
Published on June 28, 2020, in The New York Times, an opinion piece titled 'Waking Up in 2030' paints a concerning picture of the future of America. The author suggests that the pandemic is accelerating a shift towards consolidated power, weakened institutions, and growing ideological conformity.
Within elite institutions, a new ideological consensus is emerging, driven by the younger generation. This shift is expected to advance more quickly than it would have over the next decade, with less contestation. The author notes that these institutions are subject to consolidating forces, making the battle to control them more important and the professional stakes more fraught.
Corporate America may also be experiencing trends towards both consolidation and dispersal. The former is driven by the likelihood of small businesses going under, while bigger businesses ride out the pandemic. This could accelerate the drift towards a less entrepreneurial, more monopolist America. However, the latter trend, driven by remote work, pandemic fears, and rising crime rates, may encourage companies to abandon the great consolidated hubs of the digital age and disperse talent back into the heartland.
Of the trends described, only the dispersal of corporate America seems like a hopeful sign that post-pandemic America might become less sclerotic and decadent than the America of 2019. If successful, this could reduce social stratification and help create new intellectual, journalistic, and religious centers.
However, overall, the pandemic seems likely to bring us more quickly to a future of consolidated power, weakened human-scale institutions, and growing ideological conformity. Along with far too many lives, that's what's likely to be lost in this strange between-time: a decade's worth of chances to take an off-ramp, choose a different direction, or just stand athwart 2030 yelling stop.
