This archive report was first published on 26 June 2020.
As the country navigates the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic, experts have warned that infections will continue to rise exponentially in the next three months.
According to epidemiologist Thumbi Mwangi, from the Institute of Tropical Infectious Diseases at the University of Nairobi, the disease will not peak until herd immunity is achieved, which is dependent on maintaining current containment measures.
Dr Mwangi explained that until 70 per cent of Kenyans have contracted the virus, the disease will not have peaked, with the peak expected to occur in the last quarter of the year, based on current models.
"If the measures in place right now are not maintained, the peak will be sooner," Dr Mwangi warned.
He noted that if the peak occurs in November, it will be a low peak, with less sick people at the same time, but if the peak is sooner, it will be a high peak with many people infected at the same time.
Dr Githinji Gitahi, the chief executive officer of Amref Health Africa, also weighed in on the issue, stating that the peak is the point past which the number of those getting infected starts to drop, and this will not be attained until September or October in the current setting.
Dr Gitahi added that the curve is currently "flatter" since a surge would overwhelm the health system, and emphasized that flattening the curve does not mean there are no new infections.
"We are reducing the rate of infections so that there is capacity to test and treat people," Dr Gitahi said.
He also noted that once the disease has spread very much in a population, there is less likelihood of an epidemic, and that antibody tests become important to establish the population that has been exposed to the virus.
Dr Mwangi also highlighted the importance of antibody tests, stating that they will help establish the population that has been exposed to the virus.
It's worth noting that in April, Acting Health Director-General Patrick Amoth predicted that there would be 1,000 cases in the first week of April and 5,000 by mid-April, but this did not happen.
Dr Mwangi attributed this to the measures the government took, including curfews and cessation of movement.
