This archive report was first published on 25 June 2020.
Published on June 25, 2020, experts have warned that Covid-19 infections will continue to rise exponentially in Kenya over the next three months.
According to epidemiologist Thumbi Mwangi, from the Institute of Tropical Infectious Diseases at the University of Nairobi, the disease will not peak until herd immunity is achieved, which is dependent on maintaining current containment measures.
Dr. Mwangi explained that until 70% of Kenyans have contracted the virus, the disease will not have peaked, with the peak expected in the last quarter of the year, based on current models.
“If the measures in place right now are not maintained, the peak will be sooner,” Dr. Mwangi warned.
He also noted that if the peak occurs in November, it will be a low peak, with fewer people infected at the same time, but if the peak is sooner, it will be a high peak with many people infected at the same time.
Dr. Githinji Gitahi, the CEO of Amref Health Africa, added that the peak is the point past which the number of those getting infected starts to drop, and this will not be attained until September or October in the current setting.
Dr. Gitahi emphasized that flattening the curve does not mean there are no new infections, and that once the disease has spread very much in a population, there is less likelihood of an epidemic.
