This archive report was first published on 20 June 2020.
The New START treaty, a Cold War legacy, is set to expire on February 5, leaving the US and Russia with a tight deadline to renew or negotiate a new treaty.
However, China's refusal to participate in the Vienna talks has put a significant obstacle in the way of a successful extension.
US envoy Marshall Billingslea has ramped up pressure on Beijing, stating that China's role will be a determining factor in the success of the Vienna session.
China has repeatedly declined to take part in the talks, citing tensions with the Trump administration on multiple fronts.
According to Daryl Kimball, executive director of the Arms Control Association, the insistence on including China shows that the Trump administration is not serious about extending the treaty.
"The only conclusion I can come to is that Marshall Billingslea and the Trump administration do not intend to extend New START and are seeking to display China's disinterest in trilateral arms control talks as a cynical excuse to allow New START to expire," Kimball said.
Meanwhile, Russia has proposed extending the treaty to allow time for negotiations, but Moscow's ambassador in Washington, Anatoly Antonov, expressed pessimism about the prospects of a successful extension.
"As for now, I don't see any positive sign," Antonov said.
The US and Russia have been at odds over the treaty, with the US accusing Russia of modernizing thousands of non-strategic nuclear weapons that fall outside the New START treaty.
"They have adopted a highly provocative nuclear doctrine that embraces early escalation and use of nuclear weapons," US envoy Billingslea said.
However, Russian analyst Fyodor Lukyanov believes that Moscow still values the New START treaty as a way to ensure controls and transparency.
"It creates the certain level of confidence, however modest, that exists now," Lukyanov said.
As the deadline for the treaty's extension approaches, the US and Russia are facing a complex web of issues, including China's refusal to participate and the US elections, which could bring a new president with a different approach to nuclear disarmament.
