This archive report was first published on 15 June 2020.
As the 2022 Kenyan elections approach, the country is bracing itself for a possible repeat of the 2007 post-election violence. The focus is shifting from traditional leaders to a new generation of politicians, with dynasty preservation becoming a key concept.
According to analysts, the outcome of the presidential contest will depend on the terms accepted by Raila Odinga and William Ruto. Both leaders need to be at the negotiating table for their political survival. The Ruto camp has identified key players, including Kipchumba Murkomen, Oscar Sudi, and Aden Duale, while the Uhuru camp relies on non-electables like Raila, Kalonzo Musyoka, and Musalia Mudavadi.
The question remains: why should Uhuru Kenyatta play a principal role in the presidential transition if Kenya is a democratic state? Raila has fought for democratic space, but his handlers must redesign the principles to avoid a messy post-Raila Luo leadership scenario. In Luoland, there is no undisputed and defined Raila deputy, creating a siege mentality.
As the country prepares for the elections, it is essential to consider the tick boxes that will define Luo leadership and Raila's succession. The 2022 elections will be a critical test of Kenya's democratic principles and the ability of its leaders to adapt to change.
