This archive report was first published on 14 June 2020.
On June 17, 2020, the United Nations General Assembly in New York will hold elections for non-permanent members of the UN Security Council (UNSC). Kenya and Djibouti are among the countries vying for a seat, a contest that has been a long time coming.
The African Union adopted a consensus approach to guide the nomination of African representatives to serve on the UNSC over a decade ago. Under this arrangement, Kenya's candidature has traditionally represented the continent. However, this time around, the rotational African representation on the UNSC will go all the way to the wire.
Kenya and Djibouti failed to reach an agreement on who would be nominated from the eastern Africa region. The fact that Kenya failed to convince its eastern African counterparts in the first instance is increasingly being pointed at as a challenge to its diplomatic clout.
The matter was escalated to the AU, with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sissi mediating between President Uhuru Kenyatta and President Ismail Omar Guelleh of Djibouti. However, the negotiations fell through, and an election was called. Kenya garnered the most votes, but Djibouti contested the process and presented itself as a candidate at the UN.
The winner between Kenya and Djibouti will have to garner a two-thirds vote of UN member states to make it to the UNSC. What factors will see either country winning or losing? What is the game plan?
Kenya has the endorsement of the AU, but Djibouti has received endorsement from the 57-member Organization of Islamic Conference (OIC) and the 54-member Organisation Internationale de la Francophonie (OIF). This complicates things for Kenya because some African member states have cross-membership in the AU and the two organizations.
However, analysts identify the fact that the other countries that would be representing Africa are Niger and Tunisia as a potential plus for Kenya. If Djibouti won, it would mean that the UNSC has three countries representing French-speaking nations with a strong link to the OIC.
Kenya has articulated a more robust agenda for its would-be tenure, while Djibouti's campaign agenda is unclear. Kenya's track record in international peace and security, including the deployment of thousands of peacekeeping troops and peace mediation efforts in the eastern Africa region, is a significant factor in its favor.
Kenya also scores highly on humanitarian diplomacy, being one of the top 20 countries globally in terms of granting protection to refugees, according to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR). Djibouti has countered Kenya's peace and security bona fides by stating it has a high per capita peacekeeping footprint.
A factor that will stand Kenya in good stead is its diplomatic experience, having hosted the global headquarters of UNEP and UN-Habitat. However, a downside for Kenya is that its diplomatic capacity has often been too self-interested for the comfort of other African nations.
Both Djibouti and Kenya have fairly good relations with the five veto powers of China, France, Russia, United Kingdom, and US. A lot has been said of Djibouti hosting naval bases for China, France, and the US as a strength. However, there are lots of factors to show that Kenya has equally strong ties economic and security ties with these powers.
