This archive report was first published on 13 June 2020.
Amazon's founder, Jeff Bezos, made a striking prediction in November 2018, stating that even the largest companies are not immune to decline. With a net worth exceeding $112 billion at the time, Bezos noted that companies typically have lifespans of around 30 years, rather than the 100 years often assumed.
Bezos' comment was in response to a question about whether Amazon was 'too big to fail.' He pointed to the examples of companies like Kenya Airways (KQ), ARM, and Kenya Power, which were once considered blue-chip stocks on the Nairobi Securities Exchange.
Other notable examples include AIG, a massive conglomerate that collapsed in the 2008 financial crisis, and Google, whose parent company Alphabet is the second-largest in the world by market capitalization, despite being only 22 years old. Safaricom, the largest mobile network operator in Kenya, is also just 20 years old, while its mobile payment service MPesa is 12 years old.
These examples illustrate the transience of even the most successful businesses. In Nairobi, the rise of coffee shops like CJ and Charlie's has led to a decline in the popularity of Java, a once-iconic coffee shop.
As Ndindi Nyoro notes in his article 'My 3 steps to getting rich easily today,' businesses must continually adapt and innovate to stay ahead. However, even with the best strategies in place, decline is often inevitable.
Abraaj Group, the private equity firm that once owned a significant stake in Java, collapsed in 2018, and the current owners of the coffee shop seem more focused on making a profit than on providing a unique customer experience.
Ultimately, the key to prolonging the lifespan of a business is to focus on the customer. By prioritizing their needs and preferences, companies can increase their chances of survival and success.
