This archive report was first published on 11 June 2020.
June 11, 2020, marked a day when the world was grappling with the COVID-19 pandemic, and yet, humans continued to exhibit optimism bias, a phenomenon that has been a constant companion throughout history.
Optimism bias is a cognitive bias that makes people overestimate their chances of success and underestimate the risks involved. It's a bias that has been instrumental in driving human progress, but it also has its downsides. According to researcher Marianna Pogosyan, optimism bias revolves around our expectations for the future, and we tend to think that the future will be better than it really will be.
However, this bias can lead to unrealistic expectations, which can have negative consequences. For instance, people may apply for jobs that are way beyond their skill level, thinking that they will be the exception to the rule. They may also engage in unhealthy behaviors, such as overeating or not wearing face masks, thinking that they will not be affected by the consequences.
Researcher Tali Sharot highlights how optimism impacts how we gather information. We seek new knowledge, read the news, and talk to friends because of how that information will make us feel, rather than what it actually implies. This can lead to a distorted view of reality, where we focus on positive news and ignore the negative.
Optimism bias also makes people more confident, thinking that they are the best even if they are not. This over-confidence can improve motivation levels, but it can also lead to a lack of preparedness for the consequences of our actions.
So, what can we do about optimism bias? The first step is to notice our own bias and intentionally think through our expectations versus the realistic probabilities of the future. We should also be aware that others around us have their own optimism biases, and being the voice of reason can be challenging.
