This archive report was first published on 16 September 2019.
The Kibra by-election, scheduled for November 7, has become a focal point for William Ruto and Musalia Mudavadi, with the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission's (IEBC) ban on Jubilee's nominee, MacDonald Mariga, setting the stage for a complex web of alliances.
With Mariga's candidature invalidated on technical grounds, Ruto's support for the soccer star, who hails from the Luhya community, has raised eyebrows. Ruto's soft spot for Mariga is informed by the Luhya community's significant presence in Kibra, with Luhyas forming a huge plank of the constituency's population.
However, Mudavadi's resolve to wish away any political dealings with Ruto in the runup to 2022 appears to be the poisoned chalice here. When ANC secretary general Barrack Muluka hinted at a possible rapprochement between Ruto and Mudavadi to spite Raila Odinga and Uhuru Kenyatta's Building Bridges Initiative, observers opined that such a pact would come with serious ramifications for Raila's 2022 plans.
But Mudavadi swiftly moved to laugh off the possibility of a political deal with Ruto, claiming he will be going all the way to the ballot in the 2022 transition poll. From the outset, ANC had sent feelers to Ruto's Tanga Tanga faction of the ruling party to cast their lot with them on the understanding that Jubilee would not be fielding a candidate in the race to replace the late Kenneth Okoth.
As fate would have it, Ruto elected to stamp his authority, going hammer and tongs at his perceived detractors in Jubilee who had opted to sit on the fence in support of the ODM candidate in the spirit of the handshake. Ultimately, Jubilee bowed to pressure to front Ruto's project – Mariga.
But with Mariga's candidature now in limbo, Ruto may just eat the humble pie and back Mudavadi's candidate, Eliud Owalo, the former top aide of Raila's. The Luhya community, which has been planning to throw its weight behind Martin Andati of the Modern Alliance Party, may now find itself divided, with some backing Mariga and others supporting Owalo.
