KMSA Director Peter Wambugu confirmed that Nyeri County is among regions expected to experience the first showers of the October-November-December 'short rains' by late this week, with heavier rainfall anticipated in the second and third weeks of October. The weather outlook, released September 30, predicts above-average rainfall across most of Kenya, except for Turkana, West Pokot, Samburu, and Marsabit, which will see near-average precipitation. The rains, driven by the Intertropical Convergence Zone's southward shift, are forecast to persist through January 2027, according to the Kenya Meteorological Services Authority (KMSA).
Wambugu emphasized that while the initial showers could improve soil moisture and agricultural productivity, they also pose risks such as waterlogging, delayed farming operations, and increased crop diseases. The KMSA warned of potential flash floods, landslides, and waterborne disease outbreaks, particularly in poorly drained areas. The authority noted that above-average rainfall would replenish water sources, benefiting both rural and urban populations, but cautioned that inadequate drainage systems could exacerbate localized flooding in vulnerable regions.
Nyeri County Governor Dr. Mutahi Kahiga announced a Sh76 million contingency fund to mitigate El Niño impacts, including Sh20 million from the County Emergency Fund and additional allocations for infrastructure repairs, health preparedness, and disaster response. The Department of Health has been allocated Sh37 million for disease surveillance and medical supplies, while Sh10 million is earmarked for infrastructure maintenance. Kahiga stated the county would reallocate resources in the 2025/2026 supplementary budget to prioritize flood and landslide prevention.
The government has placed 18 counties on high alert for flooding and mudslides, including Nyeri, Nairobi, Mombasa, Kisumu, and others. On September 17, Government Spokesperson Charles Owino urged citizens to heed official warnings, avoid unverified information, and prepare for potential evacuations. Multi-agency teams, including ministries and county governments, are coordinating disaster mitigation efforts, with a focus on flood-prone areas and riverine communities.
El Niño, a climate pattern linked to global temperature shifts, has historically caused extreme weather in Kenya. The 1997 event triggered deadly floods, while the 2015 El Niño, though stronger in index, resulted in less severe rainfall. KMSA's report highlights the dual challenge of harnessing rainfall benefits while managing risks, particularly for agriculture-dependent regions like Meru, Tharaka-Nithi, and Embu, which typically receive over 200mm of rain during the season.
Public health officials are monitoring the risk of malaria and other waterborne diseases, with emphasis on improving drainage and sanitation in high-risk zones. The KMSA also advised farmers to consult Agricultural Extension officers for crop planning, as the authority does not issue direct agricultural recommendations. The weather outlook underscores the need for adaptive strategies to balance agricultural gains with disaster preparedness.
Residents in vulnerable areas are encouraged to collaborate with local authorities and disaster-response teams to identify at-risk populations and implement early evacuation protocols. The government has pledged to provide regular updates as weather conditions evolve, stressing the importance of relying on verified information from official channels to prevent misinformation. With the rains expected to intensify in October, Kenyans are being urged to remain vigilant and proactive in safeguarding their communities.
The KMSA's forecast highlights the critical role of regional coordination in managing El Niño's impacts. While the rains offer opportunities for agricultural recovery and water resource replenishment, the potential for infrastructure damage and public health crises necessitates a multi-pronged approach. As Nyeri and other counties prepare for the season, the focus remains on minimizing risks while maximizing the benefits of the anticipated rainfall.
The 2025/2026 budget reallocation and emergency funding reflect the government's commitment to addressing El Niño challenges, though challenges remain in ensuring equitable resource distribution and effective implementation. With historical precedents of both severe flooding and droughts, the current measures aim to build resilience against the unpredictable nature of the climate phenomenon.
The KMSA's weather outlook and government actions underscore the importance of scientific forecasting and proactive governance in mitigating climate-related risks. As the rains approach, the emphasis on collaboration between national and county authorities, as well as community engagement, will be crucial in navigating the season's challenges. The coming weeks will test the effectiveness of these preparations in safeguarding Kenya's population and infrastructure.
The ongoing El Niño event serves as a reminder of the need for sustained investment in climate adaptation strategies. While the immediate focus is on flood and landslide preparedness, long-term solutions, including improved water management and agricultural practices, will be essential in building resilience against future climate extremes.