The race for Nairobi governor is increasingly settling into a contest between Embakasi East MP Babu Owino and Kasarani MP Ronald Karauri, with a new SwissPoll International poll placing the two politicians at the centre of the 2027 battle for City Hall.
Babu leads the poll with 34.5 percent, followed by Karauri at 21.6 percent, while James Gakuya records 20.8 percent and incumbent Johnson Sakaja trails at 11.6 percent.
The figures provide an early snapshot of the race, but they also underline a broader political development: Babu and Karauri are building the strongest competing profiles around which Nairobi's next gubernatorial contest could be organized.
Karauri Combines Corporate Experience With Grassroots Politics ¶
Karauri's political journey gives him an unusual combination of corporate, professional, and electoral experience. Before entering politics, he worked as a Kenya Airways pilot and later became chief executive of SportPesa, giving him experience in managing a major business and dealing with large organizations, employees, customers, and commercial interests.
He subsequently entered elective politics as an independent candidate and won the Kasarani parliamentary seat in 2022, demonstrating that he could build a political campaign without depending entirely on an established party structure. That independent political foundation remains important because it allows Karauri to present himself as a politician who built his own electoral base before aligning with a national political party.
His connection to SportPesa has also helped shape a broader public profile through sports and community initiatives. His political interests therefore extend beyond parliamentary debates and party politics, giving him an opportunity to sell himself as someone with experience in business, professional management, politics, and grassroots development.
That blend is particularly relevant in Nairobi, where the governor's office requires more than political mobilization. City Hall controls a multibillion-shilling county government responsible for roads, markets, healthcare, waste management, planning, licensing, housing, and other services affecting millions of residents.
Karauri can therefore build his campaign around the argument that his professional background and parliamentary experience give him an understanding of both management and government.
His relationship with President William Ruto could also become an important component of his political strategy. Like Sakaja, Karauri enjoys good ties with the president, but unlike the governor, Karauri can seek the UDA support base without having been responsible for running City Hall.
That creates an interesting political contrast and gives Karauri room to position himself as part of any political camp while still offering Nairobi voters a change in county leadership.
Babu Owino and Ronald Karauri Bring Two Powerful Political Brands to Nairobi ¶
Babu and Karauri are approaching the Nairobi race from markedly different backgrounds, but both have qualities that could make them formidable candidates in a county where political identity, grassroots networks, business interests, and community mobilization all play a major role.
Babu has spent years building a powerful political base in Nairobi, particularly through Embakasi East, where he has established himself as one of the city's most recognizable elected politicians. His political style is combative and highly visible, while his supporters regard him as a politician who has consistently challenged powerful figures and maintained a strong connection with ordinary Nairobi residents.
His greatest asset is the political machinery he has developed over several election cycles. Babu understands Nairobi's constituency politics, youth demographics, and urban voting patterns, and his influence extends beyond the formal boundaries of Embakasi East.
His political profile also gives him the ability to generate attention around issues affecting the city's lower-income neighborhoods, where questions of employment, housing, security, infrastructure, and public services can determine voting patterns.
The SwissPoll figure of 34.5 percent demonstrates the extent of that existing political support, although the real test will be whether Babu can translate his strong base into a broad countywide coalition capable of winning support from Nairobi's many different communities and economic groups.
Karauri, however, brings a different proposition that could make the race considerably more competitive.
Why the Race Is Increasingly Babu Versus Karauri ¶
The most important feature of the SwissPoll results is not simply Sakaja's fourth position or Gakuya's third. It is the emergence of Babu and Karauri as the two politicians with the clearest competing narratives for Nairobi.
Babu represents established grassroots political mobilization and a deeply rooted Nairobi political identity. Karauri represents a combination of corporate management, professional experience, parliamentary politics, and community engagement. Their strengths are different enough to create two distinct paths to City Hall.
Gakuya's 20.8 percent shows that he remains relevant, particularly because of his connections with the large Kikuyu voting population in Nairobi. However, his campaign would still need to demonstrate that it can expand beyond that traditional base and compete effectively across the entire county.
Sakaja, meanwhile, remains the incumbent and therefore cannot be dismissed from the contest. His 11.6 percent in the SwissPoll survey is a warning rather than an electoral conclusion, particularly because the election is still some distance away and political alliances can change substantially before 2027.
But the political conversation is increasingly moving towards the candidates seeking to replace him rather than the governor himself.
Babu has the advantage of an established Nairobi political machine and a strong grassroots identity. Karauri has the advantage of a corporate background, parliamentary experience, and a political profile that combines business and community engagement. Both have already demonstrated an ability to win elective office, and both can make a credible case for leading a major city.
The SwissPoll results therefore offer an early indication that Nairobi's gubernatorial contest could develop into a direct battle between two very different political brands. Babu is seeking to convert his formidable urban political following into a countywide movement, while Karauri is attempting to turn his independent political foundation, corporate credentials, and growing UDA connections into a campaign capable of taking City Hall.
