Ethiopia's 2022 Pretoria peace agreement, intended to end the Tigray war, has collapsed, reigniting conflict and raising fears of a broader regional crisis. The deal, signed by the Ethiopian government and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), aimed to halt large-scale fighting and establish a framework for disarmament and political dialogue. However, its failure to address underlying disputes has led to renewed violence, with Tigrayan forces launching a major offensive in September 2026. The conflict now involves an alliance of seven armed groups, complicating efforts to restore stability.
The Pretoria agreement, while halting hostilities, was never a comprehensive political settlement. It lacked provisions for Tigray’s self-rule, parliamentary representation, and federal authority restoration. Instead, the TPLF was deregistered, and Tigray was excluded from the June 2026 elections, undermining the agreement’s foundations. The federal government also failed to withdraw Eritrean and non-federal forces from Tigrayan territories, a key condition of the deal, leaving unresolved tensions that have now resurfaced.
By early 2023, Tigrayan forces began surrendering heavy weapons, a process verified by an African Union monitoring team. However, the Ethiopian government did not fulfill its obligations, including removing the TPLF’s terrorist designation and restoring humanitarian access. This imbalance eroded trust, with Tigray’s leadership restoring pre-war regional administration in violation of the agreement’s interim governance framework. Reports of forced military mobilization further strained relations, though these actions occurred within a weakened peace process.
In September 2026, the TPLF and other groups formed the Ethiopian Peoples’ Forces Alliance for Survival, uniting the TPLF, Oromo Liberation Army, Amhara Fano elements, and regional organizations. While the alliance lacks a unified command, its cross-regional coordination poses a significant challenge to Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government. The federal state retains military superiority, but the alliance’s fragmented operations could stretch Ethiopian forces across multiple fronts, complicating defense efforts.
The U.S. has criticized the TPLF’s offensive, with Ambassador Ervin Massinga calling it an 'unwinnable fight' and threatening sanctions. However, this focus on the TPLF risks overshadowing the broader failure of the Pretoria agreement. Constitutional scholar Alemayehu Fentaw Weldemariam, a fellow at Indiana University’s Center for Constitutional Democracy, argues that the deal’s incomplete implementation allowed unresolved disputes to fester, enabling the alliance’s formation and renewed violence.
Eritrea’s role in the conflict remains contentious. Ethiopia accuses Asmara of supporting armed groups, while Eritrea denies involvement. Tensions have escalated over Ethiopia’s alleged interest in the Red Sea port of Assab, which Eritrea views as a sovereignty threat. Meanwhile, Sudan’s war has introduced new complexities, with reports of Ethiopian camps training Sudanese paramilitaries. Both nations deny direct involvement, but the potential for conflict spillover remains high.
The humanitarian crisis in Tigray, still recovering from the 2020-2022 war, faces renewed risks. Escalating air and drone strikes threaten civilian casualties, displacement, and disrupted aid. The Ethiopian government’s failure to secure humanitarian corridors exacerbates these dangers, as does the lack of independent monitoring. Alemayehu Fentaw emphasizes that a return to the Pretoria agreement alone is insufficient; a comprehensive settlement involving all stakeholders is needed.
The alliance’s diverse composition—ranging from Tigrayan rebels to Amhara and Oromo groups—reflects deep-seated grievances beyond Tigray. These include demands for regional autonomy, political representation, and accountability for wartime atrocities. The federal government’s refusal to engage with these issues has fueled radicalization, as seen in the alliance’s formation. Alemayehu warns that without addressing these root causes, the conflict will persist.
Regional implications are profound. A wider war could destabilize the Horn of Africa, drawing in Eritrea, Sudan, and potentially other neighbors. The risk of arms and recruitment networks linking Ethiopia and Sudan underscores the need for diplomatic intervention. However, the Ethiopian government’s focus on military solutions has limited progress, leaving humanitarian and political crises to escalate.
International actors, including the African Union and the U.S., have called for renewed dialogue. Yet, the absence of a unified approach among regional powers hampers efforts. The U.S. has prioritized sanctions against the TPLF, while the AU has urged inclusive negotiations. Alemayehu argues that any resolution must involve not just the federal government and TPLF but also non-armed political groups and civil society to address systemic issues.
The 2026 elections, which excluded Tigray, highlighted the government’s failure to reconcile with opposition forces. The TPLF’s deregistration and the lack of electoral oversight further alienated the region. These actions, coupled with the incomplete implementation of the Pretoria agreement, created a vacuum that the alliance has filled. Alemayehu stresses that without addressing these political grievances, the cycle of violence will continue.
As the conflict intensifies, the immediate priority is to protect civilians and restore humanitarian access. Independent monitoring of security obligations and accountability for war crimes must also be prioritized. Alemayehu concludes that a comprehensive political settlement—addressing territorial disputes, constitutional reforms, and power distribution—is essential to prevent a wider war. The Pretoria agreement’s failure serves as a cautionary tale, underscoring the need for inclusive, sustainable solutions.
The resurgence of violence in Tigray underscores the fragility of peace in Ethiopia. While the federal government retains military dominance, the alliance’s cross-regional reach complicates its ability to maintain control. The international community must now prioritize diplomacy over sanctions, fostering dialogue that addresses the root causes of the conflict. Without such efforts, the region risks descending into a protracted, multi-front war with devastating consequences.
The collapse of the Pretoria agreement highlights the challenges of post-conflict reconciliation. Ethiopia’s path forward requires not only military stability but also political inclusivity and institutional reform. The lessons from the Tigray war must inform a new approach—one that balances security with the restoration of trust and the protection of human rights. Only then can the country move toward lasting peace.
The current crisis in Ethiopia serves as a stark reminder of the consequences of incomplete peace processes. The failure to address political grievances and ensure equitable representation has led to renewed violence, with regional and humanitarian repercussions. As the conflict evolves, the need for a comprehensive, inclusive settlement becomes ever more urgent. The international community, regional actors, and Ethiopian stakeholders must act decisively to prevent further escalation and restore stability.
The resurgence of conflict in Tigray has reignited debates over the effectiveness of bilateral agreements in resolving complex political disputes. The Pretoria deal’s shortcomings demonstrate the necessity of addressing systemic issues, not just immediate security concerns. Alemayehu Fentaw’s analysis underscores the importance of a holistic approach, one that integrates military, political, and humanitarian dimensions to achieve sustainable peace. The stakes could not be higher for Ethiopia and the broader Horn of Africa.
The Ethiopian government’s handling of the Tigray conflict has drawn criticism for its lack of transparency and inclusivity. The exclusion of Tigray from the 2026 elections and the failure to implement the Pretoria agreement’s terms have fueled distrust. As the conflict escalates, the need for a transparent, inclusive political process becomes paramount. Without such measures, the cycle of violence and instability will persist, threatening the region’s stability and development.
The international community’s response to the crisis has been fragmented, with differing priorities among donors and regional actors. While some focus on humanitarian aid, others emphasize political dialogue. Alemayehu Fentaw argues that a coordinated, multilateral approach is essential to address the conflict’s root causes. The failure to do so risks prolonging the crisis and deepening its humanitarian and regional consequences.