Atiku Abubakar, the presidential candidate of the African Democratic Congress (ADC), has declared the 2027 election as his final attempt to secure Nigeria’s presidency, framing it as a critical juncture to address the nation’s economic struggles and political dynamics. His campaign strategy centers on economic relief, opposition consolidation, and a northern political mobilization, while directly opposing the policies of President Bola Tinubu. Atiku’s bid, however, is entangled in broader debates over Nigeria’s informal power-sharing arrangement between the North and South, which has shaped the country’s political landscape for decades.
Atiku’s campaign has emphasized economic hardship as a central theme, promising to reverse key policies of the Tinubu administration, including the removal of petrol subsidies. In August, he reaffirmed his stance on restoring targeted subsidies, arguing that it would alleviate fuel and transportation costs, thereby reducing pressure on food and household expenses. This position directly contradicts Tinubu’s economic reforms, which prioritized subsidy removal to stabilize the economy. The ADC has positioned itself as an alternative to the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), leveraging public frustration over rising living costs and stagnant wages.
The campaign has also focused on wage reforms, with Atiku criticizing the 2024 increase in the national minimum wage from N30,000 to N70,000 as insufficient given the surge in fuel, food, and housing prices. On September 27, he pledged to review the wage structure immediately upon taking office, arguing that the current minimum wage fails to meet basic needs. “At N1,400 a litre, the entire N70,000 monthly minimum wage buys just 50 litres of petrol. What does the worker take home to feed the children? What pays the rent? What gets that worker back to work on Monday?” he questioned, highlighting the erosion of purchasing power.
Atiku’s economic agenda extends beyond the presidential race. Seven ADC governorship candidates in the North-West—Sabo Mohammed Nakudu (Jigawa), Isa Mohammed Ashiru (Kaduna), Ibrahim Ali Amin (Kano), Ahmad Babba Kaita (Katsina), Abubakar Malami (Kebbi), Manir Muhammad Dan’iya (Sokoto), and Bilyaminu Shinkafi (Zamfara)—have committed to implementing a N110,000 minimum wage if elected. This regional strategy aims to embed Atiku’s economic message in northern politics, where his influence is strongest.
The campaign has also leaned on Nasir El-Rufai, the former Kaduna governor and federal minister, as deputy chairman of Atiku’s campaign council. El-Rufai’s appointment underscores Atiku’s focus on northern political credentials, though his inclusion has drawn scrutiny due to ongoing legal proceedings over alleged communication interception involving National Security Adviser Nuhu Ribadu. El-Rufai has pleaded not guilty, and the case remains unresolved. Dele Momodu, a former APC national chairman, defended the decision, stating it was “a way of honouring his sacrifice” and emphasizing the “political nature” of the legal challenges.
Despite El-Rufai’s role, the alliance has faced internal friction. Kingsley Moghalu, a former presidential aide, rejected his inclusion in the policy team, citing a lack of prior consultation. The campaign later stated that consultations were ongoing, and the structure remained open to expansion. These tensions reflect the challenges of building a broad coalition, as competing interests and regional priorities could complicate Atiku’s bid.
Analysts highlight the broader implications of Atiku’s campaign, particularly its potential to disrupt Nigeria’s informal power rotation. Shehu Sani, a former Kaduna Central lawmaker, argued that an Atiku victory in 2027 could end the North-South balance that has governed the presidency since 1999. “If Atiku wins, it means that is the end of rotational presidency in Nigeria,” Sani said, though he acknowledged Atiku’s constitutional right to run. He emphasized that the South should complete its eight-year tenure before power returns to the North in 2031, a stance that underscores the sensitivity of regional dynamics.
Economist Audu Peter Awah noted that Atiku’s economic promises could resonate with voters grappling with inflation and unemployment, but their sustainability depends on funding and implementation. “Subsidy can lower immediate costs, but it requires funding. Higher wages can improve nominal incomes, but they can equally increase government expenditure,” Awah said. He added that Atiku’s coalition-building efforts carry both opportunities and risks, as a broad alliance could expand his reach but also create internal conflicts.
Political analyst Jackson Lekan Ojo argued that Atiku’s campaign could gain traction due to the current economic hardship. “Remember, Atiku’s promises are swaying voters because the hardship in the land is too much. People are suffering. There are no jobs, the cost of living is high, hunger is widespread and insecurity is rising. Nigerians are genuinely angry. So, anything can happen,” he said. However, political scientist Bernard Mikko cautioned that Atiku’s focus on northern power rotation could alienate southern voters. “He is contesting at the wrong time, and voters are aware of that. There is a need to keep Nigeria united,” Mikko added, stressing that a northern candidate alone cannot secure victory without a national coalition.
Atiku has framed 2027 as his final presidential attempt, a narrative that has shaped his campaign. His political journey includes bids with the Social Democratic Party (SDP) in 1993, the Action Congress (AC) in 2007, the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) in 2011, the All Progressives Congress (APC) in 2015, and the PDP in 2019 and 2023. With the ADC ticket in 2027, this marks his seventh major presidential bid, though only three—2007, 2019, and 2023—were general elections. Analysts note that while the “final bid” narrative is politically potent, his electoral record is more nuanced.
The campaign’s success hinges on its ability to balance economic promises with political strategy. Atiku’s focus on the North aligns with the region’s historical dominance in presidential elections, but his appeal must extend beyond regional lines to secure a national mandate. The inclusion of figures like El-Rufai and the push for wage reforms aim to broaden his base, yet the unresolved legal issues and internal coalition tensions could undermine his credibility.
As the 2027 election approaches, Atiku’s campaign remains a test of Nigeria’s political and economic resilience. His ability to translate economic pledges into tangible reforms, while navigating the complexities of regional power dynamics, will determine whether his final bid becomes a turning point for the nation or another chapter in a long political saga.
Atiku Abubakar's 2027 Bid: A Final Gambit for Power and Economic Reform?