Shehu Sani, a former Kaduna Central Member of Parliament, has sounded a cautionary note ahead of the 2027 presidential election, urging northern candidates to uphold Nigeria's informal rotational presidency arrangement. In an interview on Channels Television's Politics Today on Friday, Sani warned that a victory by Atiku Abubakar, the African Democratic Congress (ADC) presidential candidate, would mark the end of the decades-old practice, potentially triggering resentment in the South. 'If Atiku wins, it means the end of rotational presidency in Nigeria, and there is going to be hard and bitter feelings from the southern part of the country,' Sani stated, emphasizing the need for political parties to field southern candidates in 2027 to ensure the North's turn in 2031.
Sani's remarks come amid heightened political maneuvering as major figures position themselves for the 16 January 2027 election. The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) has listed Atiku, President Bola Tinubu of the All Progressives Congress (APC), Peter Obi of the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC), and Oyo State Governor Seyi Makinde of the Allied Peoples Movement (APM) as candidates. Sani argued that allowing the South to complete an eight-year presidential term would create a 'unchallengeable opportunity' for the North to reclaim leadership in 2031. 'The NDC should field Peter Obi, the APM should field Makinde, let the South struggle it out and see who wins for four years. And when the tenure is done by 2031, the North should have its unchallengeable opportunity to produce the leadership of the country,' he said.
The former legislator stressed that while zoning and rotation are not enshrined in the 1999 Constitution, they have functioned as critical political conventions to maintain regional balance. 'I think it’s going to be fair to this country, to our political system, that when the South has its eight years, the North will have its eight years,' Sani asserted. He acknowledged that the Constitution does not bar Atiku from contesting but warned against disrupting the informal arrangement. 'I never said Atiku should not run. Constitutionally, he has a right to run for any election, but what I said was that a southern part of Nigeria should be allowed to have its eight-year tenure in office, just like the way the North has from 2015 to 2023,' he clarified.
Sani's comments reflect broader concerns about the fragility of Nigeria's political consensus. The North has held the presidency since 2015, with Bola Tinubu's current term concluding in 2023. The South, which has not had a president since 1999, has long advocated for its turn. Sani argued that prioritizing demographic or electoral strength over rotation would undermine the nation's stability. 'You cannot say that because you have the largest electorate and population, so you should continue dominating politics,' he said, emphasizing that the system's fairness hinges on mutual respect between regions.
The former Kaduna legislator also dismissed claims that the South's political inaction justifies northern dominance. 'I don’t think anyone will like to preside over a country full of hate, animosity, and conflict. Right now, the political system is managing a lot of crises,' he added. His remarks align with growing calls for a structured transition, as major candidates like Tinubu, Obi, and Makinde prepare for the 2027 contest. Sani's stance underscores the tension between constitutional rights and the need for regional equilibrium in a nation grappling with ethnic and political divides.
The 2027 election has become a focal point for debates over Nigeria's political future. With the North's current tenure nearing its end, the South's push for representation has intensified. Sani's advocacy for a southern eight-year term reflects a strategic vision to ensure the North's eventual return to power without destabilizing the country. 'If the South is allowed to complete its term, the North will have an unchallengeable opportunity in 2031,' he said, framing the rotation as a mechanism to prevent prolonged regional grievances.
Critics of the rotation system argue that it perpetuates regional imbalances, but Sani maintains it is essential for national cohesion. 'The informal arrangement has kept the country from descending into chaos,' he said, noting that the North's 2015-2023 tenure coincided with relative stability. However, he warned that disrupting the pattern could reignite tensions. 'The South's frustration over decades of exclusion is real, and ignoring it risks deeper conflict,' Sani cautioned.
The 1999 Constitution, which does not mandate presidential rotation, has become a point of contention. Sani acknowledged that constitutional eligibility should not be the sole determinant of political contests. 'While the Constitution allows any qualified candidate to run, the timing of elections must consider the broader implications for national unity,' he said. This perspective highlights the clash between legal frameworks and political traditions in Nigeria's governance structure.
Sani's comments also touch on the broader implications for Nigeria's democratic development. The country's history of military rule and ethnic strife has made power-sharing a delicate exercise. 'Rotation is not just about fairness; it's about survival,' he said. 'Without it, the risk of conflict escalates, and the political system becomes unsustainable.' His remarks resonate with analysts who warn that the 2027 election could be a pivotal moment for Nigeria's stability.
As the 2027 race intensifies, Sani's call for adherence to the informal rotation system underscores the high stakes involved. The North's potential return to power in 2031 hinges on the South's ability to navigate the next eight years without exacerbating regional tensions. 'The key is to ensure that the South's term is managed with transparency and inclusivity,' Sani said, emphasizing the need for political parties to prioritize national interests over regional ambitions.
The debate over presidential rotation reflects deeper challenges in Nigeria's political landscape. With the South's growing demographic and economic influence, the question of how power is distributed remains contentious. Sani's advocacy for a structured transition highlights the need for dialogue and compromise. 'The goal should be a system that balances regional interests while fostering national unity,' he concluded. His message serves as a reminder that Nigeria's political future depends on navigating these complex dynamics with care.
The 2027 election is shaping up as a critical test for Nigeria's political institutions. Sani's warnings about the risks of disrupting the rotation system add to the pressure on candidates to prioritize stability. As the nation approaches this pivotal moment, the balance between constitutional rights and regional equity will determine the trajectory of its democracy. 'The stakes are high, and the consequences of miscalculation could be severe,' Sani said, underscoring the urgency of maintaining the informal yet vital arrangement that has kept the country from descending into deeper conflict.