The Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) has announced a 2028 deadline to transition the country’s domestic gas market to a fully commercial, willing-buyer, willing-seller system, marking a pivotal shift in energy policy. The move, outlined by NMDPRA Chief Executive Rabiu Umar, aligns with President Ahmed Tinubu’s investment reforms and Nigeria’s goal of becoming a gas-powered economy by 2030, as mandated under Section 167 of the 2021 Petroleum Industry Act (PIA).
Umar emphasized that the transition would require meeting specific benchmarks, including supply diversification, market transparency, and infrastructure readiness, before lifting price controls. Speaking at a Gas Market Maturity Workshop in Abuja, he stated, “This is the first time we’ve set a clear target for our gas market transition, ensuring affordability for Nigerians while attracting private investment.” The regulator has identified eight criteria to assess market maturity, ranging from supply availability to contract reliability, with a 24-month window to certify readiness for the shift.
Despite Nigeria’s vast gas reserves, Umar acknowledged persistent supply constraints, which threaten projects like the Ajaokuta-Kaduna-Kano pipeline. “We need enough molecules to fill the pipeline, not just infrastructure,” he said, highlighting the urgency of improving production and distribution. The regulator is also finalizing draft anti-competitive practices regulations to enforce the PIA’s competition provisions, while nearing completion of gas distribution license reviews, with approvals expected by late 2026.
NMDPRA plans to expand domestic use of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), liquefied natural gas (LNG), and compressed natural gas (CNG), aiming to reduce import dependency and transmission losses. Umar stressed that regulatory predictability is critical for attracting investment, as financiers require long-term offtake agreements before committing capital. “A long-term contract is essential for a gas investment to proceed,” he said.
Industry stakeholders have mixed reactions. Ed Ubong, coordinating director of the Decade of Gas Secretariat, called the 2028 target achievable, citing plans to boost gas supply to 12.6 billion cubic feet per day by 2030 through 16 infrastructure projects. Yetunde Taiwo, president of the Nigerian Gas Association, welcomed the timeline but urged careful sequencing of the transition, emphasizing the need for clear milestones to ensure feasibility.
The shift could significantly impact Nigeria’s energy security and economic growth, reducing reliance on oil and fostering industrial development. However, challenges remain, including infrastructure gaps and the need for coordinated efforts among government, regulators, and private sector players. Umar reiterated that the transition’s success hinges on “policy direction, predictable rules, and sustained investment.”
As Nigeria moves toward a commercial gas market, the 2028 deadline underscores the urgency of addressing systemic barriers. While the vision aligns with long-term energy goals, the path forward requires balancing affordability, infrastructure development, and regulatory clarity to unlock the sector’s full potential.