The retail price of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) has reached an all-time high, with refilling a 13kg cylinder now costing up to Sh3,500—representing a 75% increase from Sh2,000 in January 2021. Industry analysts warn this may not be the peak as global market pressures persist.
Historical data shows the previous record price for a 13kg LPG cylinder was Sh3,275.84 in December 2011, driven by similar global petroleum cost surges. Current international prices for LPG, particularly from Saudi Aramco, have risen from $534 (Sh60,876) per tonne in January 2021 to $975 (Sh111,150) as of December 2021.
The Kenyan government’s 16% Value Added Tax (VAT) on cooking gas has compounded the price increases. Hass Petroleum Group CEO Mohamud Salat stated, "Price has been on an upward trajectory, and Kenyans might not have felt the full extent of the increase in retail prices."
Consumers face limited alternatives as charcoal remains inaccessible due to a 2018 logging ban and kerosene prices have risen to Sh103.54 per litre. Salat warned, "People are now spending time and resources looking for alternatives that are also not cheap. It will have a major impact on households as well as the environment."
Despite a 17% increase in LPG consumption between 2020 and 2021, reaching 381,390 metric tonnes, the government has not regulated cooking gas prices. Epra noted plans to improve import infrastructure, including the Kipevu Oil Terminal and Kenya Petroleum Refineries Ltd storage facilities, to enhance market stability.
The National Oil Corporation of Kenya now has a mandate to import a third of petroleum products, including LPG, aiming to stabilize prices through increased supply. However, current market forces continue to drive costs upward.
LPG consumption growth accelerated sharply after 2012, with residential and commercial use nearly doubling from 2013 levels to 151,700 metric tonnes. By 2016, total consumption reached 151,700 tonnes, according to Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS) data. The 2019 Kenya Housing and Population Census revealed 52.9% of urban households rely on LPG, up from 4.9% in 2009.
Epra’s 2021 report highlighted rapid consumption growth: demand nearly doubled between 2017-2019 to 304,408 metric tonnes before pandemic-related disruptions in 2020. While consumption rebounded slightly to 320,909 tonnes, the 2021 figure of 381,390 tonnes marked a 17% increase over 2020 levels.
The government’s 2018 logging ban eliminated charcoal as an affordable alternative, while kerosene prices rose to Sh103.54 per litre. Salat noted households are forced to seek costly substitutes, exacerbating financial strain. "It will have a major impact on households as well as the environment," he said.
Epra has proposed infrastructure upgrades to stabilize prices, including the second Kipevu Oil Terminal and KPRL storage facilities. These projects aim to reduce reliance on private terminals and improve import efficiency. The National Oil Corporation of Kenya’s mandate to import 33% of petroleum products could also help moderate prices if implemented effectively.
