This archive report was first published on 7 September 2019.
Published on September 7, 2019, Guleid Artan, director of the Climate Prediction and Applications Centre, shares insights on the impact of climate change on the Horn of Africa's weather patterns and the challenges faced by farmers in the region.
According to Artan, climate change is making it harder to accurately predict the weather, leading to mistrust among farmers. He emphasizes that while it's impossible to be certain with a 100% probability, taking early mitigation actions can be beneficial, even if the event doesn't occur.
Artan advises farmers to trust and utilize climate information and early warnings issued by national institutions, including ministries of agriculture and organizations providing localized advisories on crops, farming techniques, seed varieties, post-harvest technologies, or access to markets.
The climate is changing, and temperatures are increasing everywhere in the Horn of Africa, with July being the hottest month since weather records began. Analysis of trends from 1981 to 2010 shows that the durations of the three seasons are getting shorter due to late onset and early withdrawal of the rains.
Climate change is already affecting every corner of the region, and these trends need to be considered in any intervention. The increasing temperatures, shorter seasons, unpredictable rainfall, and increasing intensity and frequency of extreme weather are directly affecting the livelihoods of millions of smallholder farmers and pastoralists in the region.
Our latest report in partnership with the Food Security Information Network shows that 27 million people are food insecure in the Igad region, with 11.9 million being food insecure due to climatic shocks. Climate change is likely to increase the vulnerability of small-scale farmers, and countries and organizations need to increase investments in resilience and climate change adaptation.
Artan suggests that special focus should be put on working better with FM stations, the true mass communication media in the region, as research shows that smallholder farmers, pastoralists, and fishermen want to receive information through radio because it is their favourite channel and the one they trust the most.
The seasonal forecast predicts some relief for some areas that were under drought stress in the past few months, with the rains expected to be above average for most of the region. However, users are reminded to update the seasonal forecast with information from their national meteorological departments.
