A woman in Mandera, Wajir, and Marsabit counties is likely to give birth to at least seven children, according to 2022 data, as Kenya's overall fertility rate fell from 8 births per woman in 1963 to 3.4 in 2022, according to the Economic Survey.
The total fertility rate—defined as the average number of children born to a woman during her reproductive years—remains sharply divided across regions. Mandera recorded 8 births per woman, Wajir 6.7, and Marsabit 7, while Nairobi had the lowest rate at 2.5. Counties with high fertility rates also showed low contraceptive use, with West Pokot reporting only 30% of women using modern methods compared to Nyamira's 69%.
Research links low contraceptive adoption to high birth rates in areas with elevated child mortality. Northern Kenya's average child mortality rate is 42 deaths per 100 births, versus 12 in the west and 6 in the Rift Valley. Limited access to reproductive health services and cultural norms favoring large families contribute to these disparities.
A University of Washington study projected global fertility rates could fall below 1.7 births per woman by 2100, peaking global population at 9.7 billion by 2064. Kenya's 2022 survey showed contraceptive prevalence stalled at 61%, below the 2030 target of 66% and 2050 goal of 70%. Health officials cited recent stockouts of implants, pills, and condoms as barriers to family planning, despite women with formal education being four times more likely to use contraception.
