This archive report was first published on 2 September 2019.
On September 2, 2019, economist David Ndii published an article in The East African Review, where he debunked the statistics that the gambling industry in Kenya makes a turnover of Sh200 billion a year.
Using the 2018 national economic data, Ndii looked at the gross output of 'other service activities' and 'arts, recreation and entertainment' sectors, where gambling would be captured. He found that the output was Sh154 billion and Sh10 billion, respectively, far below the claimed turnover.
According to Ndii, the Sh200 billion gambling turnover is not just inconsistent but also missing in the national economic data. He also questioned the government's claim that there are 12 million mobile phone-based betting accounts, citing Google's numbers that only identify 13 million active internet users in Kenya.
With 1.9 percent of mobile money account users in Kenya using their accounts for betting, as reported by the 2019 FinAccess Survey, Ndii estimated that there are only 900,000 mobile phone-based bettors in Kenya, not 12 million.
Accurate use of data in public policy management and administration is crucial, as it helps in the accurate assessment of the policy problem leading to accurate policy initiatives. Unfortunately, the government has failed to live up to this standard in the case of sports betting.
As economist Tony Watima notes, the demand for gambling will always exist as long as individuals feel that they wish to improve their wealth or income position. The supply will always follow demand, whether it's through legal or black market channels.
