This archive report was first published on 18 August 2019.
On August 22, Sheikh Islam Ahmed Madobe, the president of Jubbaland state of Somalia, will face a crucial test of his leadership as he seeks re-election. The poll, which was initially set for August 21, was postponed by a day after the Jubbaland Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (JIEBC) yielded to international pressure to allow more candidates to register.
The United Nations and the African Union had been pressing the JIEBC to make changes, citing concerns that the initial process could have a destabilizing effect on Jubbaland. In a letter to James Swan, the UN Secretary-General's Special Representative to Somalia, JIEBC chairman Hamza Barre announced that the registration period would be reopened from August 17 to 19, allowing more candidates to participate in the election.
Madobe, who was born in Somalia's central region and has a background in Islamic philosophy, has been a key figure in the region's politics. He was the leader of the Ras Kamboni Brigade, which, with the help of Kenyan soldiers, routed Al-Shabaab from Kismayu in 2012. The brigade's success was largely due to the support of the Kenya Defence Forces, who re-hatted to the African Union Mission in Somalia (Amisom) and occupied Sector II in Jubbaland.
The elections in Jubbaland have significant implications for regional security policies. A group of academics, including Patrick Maluki, a diplomacy lecturer at the University of Nairobi, have warned that the outcome of the poll could have far-reaching consequences for the region. "Jubbaland is like the umbilical cord of Somalia and Kenya. It is very strategic," Maluki said.
Formally, Madobe is competing against six other candidates, including Mohamed Omar Gedi, Mohamed Abdille Magan, and Anab Mohamed Dahir. However, there are other contenders who have been locked out of the race due to late submission of papers and failure to meet other qualifications. These candidates have created a parallel commission, which has been condemned by the global community.
