This archive report was first published on 9 August 2019.
Donald Trump's 2020 Advantage ¶
Published on August 9, 2019
President Trump's presidency has been marred by numerous gaffes, crassness, and fiction, but his supporters have made a deal with him, accepting these traits as part of the Trump brand.
One of Trump's advantages in the 2020 presidential race is his incumbency. Since 1900, most American presidents who sought re-election have won a second term, including all but George H.W. Bush in the last 35 years.
Another advantage is the Electoral College. Despite Trump's claims that it favors Democrats, the results of the 2016 election show otherwise. According to a recent analysis by The New York Times' Nate Cohn, Trump's edge in the Electoral College, relative to the national popular vote, is shaping up to be even larger than it was in 2016.
However, these advantages may be overshadowed by a fourth one: Trump's ability to shrug off criticism and controversy. His supporters have become desensitized to his gaffes and outrages, and he has given himself a singular armor, a special inoculation, which is that no one expects more from him.
As Frank Bruni noted, 'There's no shock factor. He's caught on tape bragging about the unwanted touching of women and much of the electorate's reaction is: Yeah, sounds about right.'
None of the Democratic candidates enjoy this perverse protection because none of them sought it. None wagered that the road to the White House was paved with gratuitous offense, a disregard for pesky facts, and the determination never to say you're sorry. Trump made that bet, which few observers thought was a wise or winning one.
And he prevailed. Now he reaps the rewards.
