This archive report was first published on 5 August 2019.
Published on August 5, 2019, the ODM's performance in the just-concluded by-elections has left many questioning the party's strength. In a scenario where ODM was still a formidable force against the government, the party would have easily clinched the seats, regardless of the candidates.
However, with the party leader, Raila Odinga, having formed an alliance with the government, selling the party's manifesto has become increasingly challenging. The party's members contesting in the by-elections found it difficult to convince voters that the alternative party was not the best choice for the county, given its ties with the government.
The recent losses can be seen as a harbinger of the party's performance in the 2022 elections. If ODM continues to focus on the 'handshake' between President Uhuru Kenyatta and Raila Odinga, rather than addressing its internal issues, the party's chances of winning seats on the ODM ticket will be slim.
Irshad Sumra, who ran on the ODM ticket, was confident of winning, but lost to Julius Mawathe of the Wiper Party. Chris Karan also suffered a defeat at the hands of David Ochieng', a candidate from the Movement of Democracy and Growth Party, with a margin of around 4,000 votes.
While it may be premature to declare the ODM party's downfall, the recent defeats in its strongholds and the presence of the 'handshake' make it impossible to ignore the party's struggles. Perhaps, it is time for ODM to reassess its strategy and explore ways to leverage the 'handshake' to its advantage in the 2022 elections.
