This archive report was first published on 5 August 2019.
As the August 24 elections in Jubbaland approach, President Sheikh Ahmed Islam Madobe is facing a fierce battle for re-election. The election, which has turned into a battle on land and online, has seen candidates vying for the influence of key clan elders who form a college that votes in leaders.
Madobe, who has been in power for five years, is facing opposition from several candidates, including Abdinasir Seraar, a former ally who now runs a separate militia group. Seraar was part of the Ras Kamboni Brigade, a militia that worked with the Kenyan Defence Forces (KDF) to rout Al-Shabaab in Kismayu in 2012.
Other candidates in the race include former Transport minister Mohamed Omar and former Food and Agriculture Organisation employee Mohamed Dahir Marsheye. Ahead of the elections, Madobe has faced a security challenge and candidates said to be fronted by the Federal Government of Somalia under President Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed, alias Farmaajo.
Allegations have been made that Madobe has lost the support of the Ogaden clan, the largest in Jubbaland and which he belongs. The claim arose even as Al-Shabaab warned elders to register with the group within 45 days. The selection of candidates follows the clan balancing formula - 4:5 – four main clans and a coalition of smaller ones.
Analysts believe that Farmaajo's administration wants to make sure the states are under his control before the completion of the future constitution. Farmaajo has been criticised for seeking to divide Madobe's Ogaden clan, which also has a presence in Kenya and Ethiopia.
Madobe's office has dismissed allegations that he engineered the recent Shabaab attack on a hotel in Kismayu, which killed 26 people. His ally, Ahmed Mohammed, said that Madobe is sincere in the war against extremist groups and fully understands the operations of Al-Shabaab.
