Economic analysts continue to question the effectiveness of Uhuru Kenyatta's policies, pointing to stalled projects, rising debt, and a contracting private sector. The government's approach has drawn comparisons to earlier periods of economic stagnation, with critics noting that growth metrics from 2006-2008 failed to translate into sustainable development.
The Nairobi Securities Exchange (NSE) has struggled to recover from a decline that began before Kenyatta's tenure. Between 2006 and 2008, five major listings boosted market confidence, but subsequent efforts to attract new companies have faltered. By 2017, the NSE 20 Index remained below its 2014 peak, reflecting broader challenges in capital formation.
Infrastructure projects like the Standard Gauge Railway (SGR) and Galana Kulalu irrigation scheme have faced scrutiny. The SGR, initially expected to boost economic growth by 1.5%, now incurs higher cargo transport costs than road networks. The Galana Kulalu project, revived in 2015, has stalled after its Israeli partner withdrew, exacerbating food security concerns.
Private sector performance has deteriorated significantly. Credit growth fell to a decade-low of 2% by October 2017, down from 25% in mid-2014. Company profits declined by a third since 2013, forcing widespread cost-cutting measures. Foreign investment has also waned, with vehicle production in 2015 far below peak levels despite government incentives.
Economic data reveals a growing disconnect between GDP expansion and tax revenue. While the economy grew between 2013 and 2017, tax buoyancy remained low, with the government relying heavily on debt to fund operations. By 2019, Kenya's debt burden reached Sh5.3 trillion, raising concerns about fiscal sustainability.
