The American Enterprise Institute (AEI) has criticized Somalia's decision to auction oil and gas exploration rights in waters claimed by Kenya, warning the move risks damaging the country's international standing and economic prospects.
In a 2019 analysis, AEI scholar Michael Rubin argued that Somalia's actions undermine its credibility as a reliable business partner and conflict with its reliance on Kenyan security support through the African Union Mission in Somalia (Amisom).
"Somalia's government should recognize that after decades of instability, short-term gains from oil extraction could backfire," Rubin wrote, referencing the 2014 International Court of Justice (ICJ) process initiated by Somalia over maritime boundary disputes with Kenya.
The ICJ began reviewing Somalia's claim to 100,000 square kilometers of sea bed after negotiations between the two nations collapsed. Rubin highlighted historical precedents, including Turkey's 2011 warnings to companies operating in Cypriot waters, which ultimately harmed Ankara's diplomatic reputation.
"Attempting to exploit disputed territories without established governance capacity can exacerbate conflicts," Rubin noted, adding that Somalia's approach risks complicating future enforcement of any ICJ ruling.
