This archive report was first published on 31 July 2019.
Published on July 31, 2019, the Jubbaland election is reaching its climax, with Sheikh Ahmed Madobe's eight-year rule facing a spirited challenge from Abdinasir Seraar, his former lieutenant at the Ras Kamboni Brigade.
The August 21 poll will be a significant test for Kenya, Somalia, Ethiopia, and the United States, whose presence in Somalia has increased in recent years.
Abdinasir Seraar, a co-founder of the Ras Kamboni Brigade and former spokesperson of Jubbaland, has unsettled his former comrade-in-arms with his campaign.
As the most heavily armed man in Jubbaland controls the instruments of power, Seraar, who leads a militia with over 1,000 men, is braving the fight against Madobe, who has a private army and enjoys the protection of the Kenya Defence Forces.
Madobe, also known as Blackie, has banned opponents from campaigning in Kismayu until Seraar unleashed his militia and offered them protection.
Seraar accuses Madobe of ignoring the rule of law, oppressing citizens, and undermining the Somali National Army.
Other presidential hopefuls include Minister for Transport and Civil Aviation Mohamed Omar and Mohamed Dahir Marsheye, who once worked with the Food and Agriculture Organisation.
Madobe also faces opposition from federal president Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed Farmaajo, who has persuaded members of his Marehan clan, the majority in Jubbaland, not to vie for the presidency.
Local analysts say Farmaajo's move has made Madobe's position weak, and Mohamed Hashi, a top Marehan elder, has vowed to work for Madobe's downfall.
The administration of Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has withdrawn its backing for Madobe, and the rest of the warlords in Somalia have either been removed from power or lost elections in Puntland, Baidoa, Galmudug, and Hiran.
