This archive report was first published on 31 July 2019.
Published on July 31, 2019
Sheikh Ahmed Madobe, Kenya's ally in the war against al-Shabaab, faces a spirited challenge from Abdinasir Seraar, his former lieutenant at the Ras Kamboni Brigade, in the upcoming Jubbaland election on August 21.
The election will be a test for Kenya, Somalia, Ethiopia, and the United States, whose presence in Somalia has increased.
Abdinasir Seraar, a co-founder of the Ras Kamboni Brigade and ex-spokesperson of Jubbaland, has unsettled his former comrade-in-arms with his campaign.
As the most heavily armed man in the state controls the instruments of power, Seraar, who runs a militia with over 1,000 men, is braving the fight against Madobe, who also has a private army and enjoys the protection of the Kenya Defence Forces.
Madobe, alias Blackie, has banned opponents from campaigning in Kismayu until Seraar unleashed his militia and offered them protection.
Abdinasir Seraar says Madobe ignores the rule of law, oppresses citizens, and undermines the Somali National Army.
Other presidential hopefuls include Minister for Transport and Civil Aviation Mohamed Omar and Mohamed Dahir Marsheye, who once worked with the Food and Agriculture Organisation.
Madobe also faces opposition from federal president Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed Farmaajo, who has persuaded members of his Marehan clan, the majority in Jubbaland, not to vie for the presidency.
Local analysts say the move by Farmaajo to let Ogadens 'fight among themselves' has made Madobe's position weak.
Early this month, Jubbaland elders chairman Hussein Mahamud Qorane accused the president of failing to protect the state from Shabaab militants.
Garad Ali Garaad, another influential elder, said a regime change is necessary 'in order to open Jubbaland to development'.
The administration of Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has withdrawn its backing for Madobe, as Ethiopia is no longer interested in having warlords in influential positions in Somalia.
Madobe is the only remaining warlord still heading a regional government, while the rest were either removed from power or lost elections in Puntland, Baidoa, Galmudug, and Hiran.
Abdinasir Seraar, Mohamed Omar, and Mohamed Dahir Marsheye are members of the Auliyhan sub-clan, which spreads into Garissa in Kenya.
