Automakers and tech firms developing self-driving vehicles face persistent challenges with lidar technology, which remains critical for autonomous systems despite high costs and technical hurdles. Ford's upcoming 2021 self-driving vehicle program, set to use lidar sensors from Velodyne and Veoneer, highlights both the industry's reliance on the technology and its unresolved obstacles.
Since 2017, over $1 billion has been invested in 50 lidar startups, including a record $420 million in 2018. However, the sector lacks standardized solutions, delaying mass production and cost reductions. Industry forecasts predict only $2.5 billion in lidar revenue by 2025, with some executives warning of a protracted development curve.
"It’s going to be a long runway," said IHS Markit analyst Jeremy Carlson, as companies like Toyota and Volkswagen continue evaluating multiple lidar approaches. While solid-state lidar promises lower costs, current systems remain expensive, with some prototypes priced above $75,000. Market consolidation is expected by 2030, mirroring radar technology's evolution, but risks persist for early investors.
