The formation of the National Super Alliance (NASA) has significant implications for both the Opposition coalition and Jubilee in the Western voting bloc.
NASA comprises four principals: Raila Odinga (ODM), Musalia Mudavadi (Amani National Congress), Moses Wetangula (Ford Kenya), and Kalonzo Musyoka (Wiper).
Since 2013, Jubilee has attempted to gain ground in Western, which has traditionally been an Opposition stronghold. This includes convincing some legislators to defect from ODM, Ford Kenya, and Amani National Congress (ANC) to Jubilee.
Western’s voting patterns have been irregular, with the region supporting different presidential candidates in most elections. For instance, in 2002, Mwai Kibaki received 505,716 votes, while Uhuru Kenyatta got 124,273 votes, and Simon Nyachae received 9,080 votes.
In the 2007 General Election, Raila Odinga secured 639,246 votes, compared to Mwai Kibaki’s 312,300 votes and Kalonzo Musyoka’s 6,729 votes. In the 2013 elections, CORD leader Raila Odinga garnered 755,525 votes, surpassing Musalia Mudavadi, who received 353,864 votes, while Uhuru Kenyatta got 66,185 votes.
Musalia Mudavadi views Western’s voting pattern as a sign of democracy. "People should actually praise Western region instead of castigating them for voting for whoever they want to, because this shows that it is the only region in the country that practices true democracy," Mudavadi said in a past interview.
Although the inclusion of two Western leaders in NASA (Moses Wetangula and Musalia Mudavadi) gives the coalition an advantage over Jubilee, more needs to be done to secure the region’s votes. According to analysts, NASA should consider giving the flag bearer position to a leader from the Western region, preferably Musalia Mudavadi, due to his experience and influence.
Failing to do so may result in voter apathy, with some locals potentially voting for Jubilee. The complexity surrounding NASA’s presidential lineup is a current challenge, with each principal vying for a position.
While ODM leader Raila Odinga is likely to only accept the flag bearer position, the others may consider alternative key slots. There are concerns about Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka’s next steps if he misses out on the presidential lineup, although Wiper leaders insist the party will remain in NASA.
