This archive report was first published on 23 July 2019.
On the heels of a strong first quarter, Sub-Saharan Africa is poised to continue its economic recovery path next year, according to a Reuters poll of 15 analysts and economists. The poll, conducted this week, predicts that Nigeria, Africa's largest economy, will grow 2.6% next year, while Kenya will grow 5.8%.
However, even if Ghana's growth slows as expected to 6.1% in 2020 from 6.5% this year, next year's performance would still be faster than the six percent predicted in the last survey. Interest rates in Ghana, Nigeria, and Kenya are expected to remain unchanged next week, although Nigeria may ease in September and the other two countries may ease next year.
Other major global central banks are also expected to ease policy soon. Economists largely agree that Sub-Saharan Africa's growth, which the International Monetary Fund forecast in April would grow at 3.5% this year, will stay on the recovery path next year. South Africa's Reserve Bank has joined other emerging market banks in cutting interest rates, and economists expect South Africa to perform slightly better and act as less of a drag on regional growth.
Angola, the third-largest economy in Africa when excluding northern countries, is also expected to be a heavyweight if Nigeria disappoints. South Africa, where growth is expected to accelerate to 1.4% next year from 0.7% in 2019, has been a drag on the continent, alongside Nigeria, which makes up about 50% of Africa's economy.
West Africa is expected to pick up pace nicely, while East African growth is seen slowing slightly but remaining very robust from a regional perspective. Zambia has not been performing well due to a huge debt problem that has weighed on growth prospects.
African leaders launched a continental free-trade zone on Sunday after Nigeria finally signed up. If successful, it will unite 1.3 billion people and create a $3.4 trillion economic bloc, ushering in a new era of development.
