Western diplomats have intervened to ease tensions between Kenya's governing Jubilee Coalition and the opposition Coalition for Reforms and Democracy (CORD), amid concerns of a potential bloody confrontation over the composition of the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC).
The Government had alleged that Opposition Leader Raila Odinga was planning to militarily oust President Uhuru Kenyatta from power with the help of neighboring countries, prompting threats from Cabinet Secretary for Internal Security Joseph Nkaissery to arrest CORD leaders if they held parallel rallies.
Context and Evidence ¶
The situation was further complicated by the East African Community's apparent isolation of Kenya over infrastructure development due to fears of election violence. Uganda and Rwanda have rerouted their railway line through Tanzania, while South Sudan and Ethiopia have developed cold feet over the cost and economic returns of the Lamu Port Southern Sudan-Ethiopia Transport (LAPSSET) corridor project in Kenya.
According to Mombasa Senator Hassan Omar Hassan, the President was looking for a way to minimize pressure and possibly take the sting out of the Opposition. Hassan stated,
The President is looking for a way to minimise the pressure. Nobody expected the turnaround. It could also be a trick to take the sting out of the Opposition. I hope the spirit of the meeting will be sustained to prevent the country from sliding into chaos.
Response and Consequences ¶
Diplomats, led by US Ambassador Robert Godec, have been pushing for stakeholders' dialogue to forestall descent into election violence. The US Embassy, along with other countries, has been consulting with political actors in Kenya to prevent a repeat of the 2008 post-election violence.
After a meeting at State House, Bungoma Senator Moses Wetang'ula reported that the Opposition was invited to discuss ways of kicking off dialogue over the IEBC. The meeting came after the High Court granted CORD permission to hold a rally at Uhuru Park, despite initial police orders barring the event due to security concerns.
The situation has sparked international outrage, with two protesters killed and scores injured in clashes with police. Western envoys have expressed concern that Kenya is on a rapid downspin as the 2017 elections approach, and have called for dialogue involving the State, opposition, religious, and civil society organizations to halt the imminent descent into violence.
