This archive report was first published on 20 July 2019.
On July 17, 2019, the Transitional Military Council in Khartoum and democratic forces that have sustained protests against it signed a transitional power-sharing agreement. The deal sets a 39-month transitional period, with the military managing the first 21 months and civilians taking over for the final 18 months leading up to elections.
While the agreement has been met with a guarded welcome by the protesters, who ousted the three-decade-old regime of Gen Omar Al Bashir in April, it is a significant step forward for the country. However, many are concerned that the three-year transitional period is too short to allow for a deep transition and the overhaul of the institutional framework to deliver free and credible elections.
Trust is also a major issue, as the key actors in the mayhem and slaughter of protesters that followed Bashir's ouster remain powerful and unwilling to account for their actions. Nevertheless, the deal offers the only alternative to a costly stalemate in which the civilians pay the ultimate price.
The economy, battered by Western sanctions, the secession of South Sudan, and a costly civil war, has suffered significant shrinkage. A $50 billion foreign debt means matters can only get worse if the political impasse is not resolved. A further deterioration of the economy would keep in place the very conditions that triggered the protests in the first place, with the attendant risk of revolutions within the revolution.
To gain public trust, the joint administration must draw a social recovery agenda with clear milestones against which they can be held accountable. The military must also work at earning the trust of the masses, as the protests have made it clear that the civilians are fed up with military rule. The international community will not ease the yoke of sanctions until they see commitment from the military to a new civilian order.
