This archive report was first published on 20 July 2019.
On July 20, 2019, Ethiopia stood at a crossroads as the Sidama region in the south pushed for a new state, a move that could potentially split the country into smaller regional units.
The Sidama, who make up about three million of the country's 103 million people, have been agitating for years to leave the Southern Nations, Nationalities, and Peoples' Region and create their own state.
Although the push for a unilateral declaration of a Sidama federal state by July 18 was thwarted after the election board of Ethiopia promised to hold a referendum in five months, the government is facing a delicate balance between allowing the Sidama state and setting a precedent for other regions like Tigray in the north, or blocking the separation and inviting violence.
According to Article 39 of the Ethiopian Constitution, every state, nationality, and people in Ethiopia has an unconditional right to self-determination, including the right to secession.
However, observers say that the constitutional provision is now a major challenge following the coming into office of Prime Minister Dr. Abiy Ahmed in April 2018, as he initiated wide-ranging political reforms.
Dr. Abiy's reforms have led to a surge in ethnic conflicts and regions mobilising to demand self-determination and proportional political representation.
Violent clashes have erupted in different parts of the country, costing many lives and causing massive displacement of ethnic minorities.
As the country grapples with these challenges, the Institute for Security Studies (ISS) has warned that the state needs to be assertive and inclusive at the same time, or risk jeopardising the transition to democracy.
“Failure in either task will jeopardise the transition to democracy. Decisive and strong leadership is needed to push for political liberalisation and forge coherence in the ruling party and government. Given the current schism in the EPRDF, a major shake-up of the party may be needed,” said Semir Yusuf, ISS Senior Researcher based in Addis Ababa.
