Kenya’s dependence on rain-fed farming is becoming harder to sustain as weather patterns grow less predictable and water supplies tighten. The pressure is already being felt by smallholder farmers, who remain the backbone of the country’s food production.
In 2018, the warning was framed as both an agricultural and economic issue. More than 80 percent of cropped land worldwide depended on rainfall alone, while in sub-Saharan Africa over 90 percent of cropland was rain-fed, leaving production exposed to drought, floods, dry spells and poor soils.
The original report said Kenya was already dealing with unreliable rains, higher temperatures and prolonged drought periods. It added that climate change was reducing water availability and threatening food security in a country where farming still relies heavily on weather.
Population growth was also identified as part of the problem. Kenya’s population was projected to reach 94 million by 2050 and more than 160 million by 2100, increasing demand for food at the same time that climate stress was weakening output.
The piece linked the issue to the government’s Big Four agenda, which placed agriculture among the main drivers of growth. It argued that food and nutrition security had to remain central if the country was to reduce poverty, hunger and malnutrition while sustaining economic progress.
To respond, the report pointed to irrigation, better water conservation, drought- and disease-resistant crop varieties, land and pasture management, soil moisture conservation, forest protection and the safeguarding of water catchment areas. It also highlighted high-value crops that could earn better market prices.
Most of those methods were described as already available, but underused. The report said many subsistence farmers were reluctant to adopt new practices unless they were convinced the changes were low-risk and profitable.
It therefore called for stronger education and advocacy programmes to help farmers understand climate change, its effects and the available adaptation options.
