On Wednesday, 21 November 2018, Theresa May arrived in Brussels to try to tighten the terms of the Brexit divorce after surviving a challenge from hardline anti-Europeans in her own party.
The British prime minister was due to meet European Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker over afternoon tea, with talks expected to run until the planned deal-signing summit on Sunday. Both sides had little room left to adjust either the withdrawal treaty or the political declaration on future relations, yet May still needed to show British MPs that she had exhausted every option before the agreement could be ratified.
Her immediate political position improved after a leadership challenge from anti-European Conservative members failed to gather momentum, at least for the moment, and no confidence vote was triggered. Even so, she remained under pressure from Northern Irish parliamentary allies who said the deal weakened British sovereignty in the province, while Spain warned it could block the accord over Gibraltar.
European Union leaders were set to meet on Sunday to approve the outline declaration on future post-Brexit ties and the withdrawal agreement reached the previous week, in the hope of ending the uncertainty around Britain’s exit in March.
The deal on the table covered Britain’s financial settlement, the rights of expatriate citizens, arrangements to keep the Irish border open, and the terms of a post-Brexit transition. Officials were also racing to finalise the accompanying statement on future trade and security relations after Britain leaves the EU’s single market and customs union.
Spain’s prime minister, Pedro Sanchez, said his government would “vote no to Brexit unless there are changes” that would give Madrid a say in future relations between Gibraltar and the EU. Spain wants the right to negotiate Gibraltar’s future with Britain on a bilateral basis, and the dispute has become one of the main threats to the package.
Back in London, opposition to the agreement was also growing in the House of Commons, which was expected to vote on the final Brexit deal early the following month. On Monday, MPs from Northern Ireland’s Democratic Unionist Party abstained on three budget votes and voted against the government on a fourth, signalling open frustration with their arrangement to support the Conservatives on finance matters.
Pro-Brexit Conservatives also attacked the deal, arguing that it kept Britain too close to the EU. Rebels led by Jacob Rees-Mogg failed in their bid to force an immediate confidence vote in May’s leadership, but they warned that they would continue trying. Rees-Mogg said May had taken “a deliberate decision not to deliver a proper Brexit”.
Despite the backlash, May continued to defend the agreement in meetings with politicians, business leaders and party members. The withdrawal deal provides for a 21-month transition after Brexit, during which Britain and the EU would try to turn the outline political declaration into a full trade agreement.
The most contentious safeguard is the backstop, which would apply if no future deal is ready in time. Under that arrangement, Britain would remain in the EU’s customs union, while Northern Ireland would also stay aligned with parts of the single market in order to avoid a hard border with Ireland.
The outcome left May trying to hold together a fragile political coalition at home while pushing the Brexit talks to a conclusion in Brussels, with the risk that the deal could still collapse and leave Britain without another arrangement in place when its four-decade EU membership ends.
