This analysis argues that the global economy is being pulled in conflicting directions by protectionism, trade wars and slowing growth. The warning is that countries without a clear strategy could end up paying the price.
The piece points to Donald Trump’s presidency as a major driver of the shift. After the 2016 US presidential campaign, several Republican contenders openly backed protectionist ideas, promising to block trade deals they believed harmed American industry. Since winning office, Trump has repeatedly said the United States is renegotiating trade arrangements that he considers unfair.
At the United Nations General Assembly, Trump said his country was revising what he described as “broken and bad trade deals.” He argued that some nations had enjoyed access to American markets for years without offering the same treatment in return.
The article says those comments were largely aimed at China. By the time of publication, the Trump administration had imposed tariffs on Chinese imports worth $250 billion, while China had responded with duties on US goods amounting to $100 billion. The US has also accused China of currency manipulation. Economists warned that the dispute could unsettle investors and weaken confidence in both economies.
Brexit is presented as another sign of the same uncertainty. In 2016, voters in the United Kingdom chose to leave the European Union, citing concerns about cost, trade restrictions and immigration. The exit was scheduled for March 29, 2019, although calls for a second referendum raised the possibility of delay or reversal.
The article then turns to Africa, arguing that the continent should not remain passive while larger powers reshape global trade rules. It says African governments need a stronger seat at the table if they are to protect their economies and improve living standards.
It also highlights the region’s debt burden, saying foreign borrowing, especially from China, has reached trillions of dollars. A World Bank report released earlier in 2018 said 18 Sub-Saharan African countries were at growing risk of debt distress because of heavy borrowing and large deficits. The countries named included Angola, Ethiopia, Kenya, Ghana, Nigeria, Tanzania and Zambia.
On regional integration, the article notes that in March 2018 the African Continental Free Trade Area urged African states to work together to promote the free movement of goods and services. Supporters said a fully joined bloc of 55 countries would create one of the world’s largest free-trade areas, with more than US $4 trillion in combined consumer and business spending. Even so, only seven countries had signed at the time, far short of the 22 needed for the agreement to take effect.
The East African Community is also mentioned as it pursued an economic partnership agreement with the European Union. Tanzania declined to sign, saying the deal could hurt its economy.
The central message is blunt: African policymakers must make better trade decisions, or the continent will remain vulnerable while major economies set the terms of global commerce.
Dinah Wakio is Communications Consultant at P&L Consulting Ltd
