On 2018-11-19, United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) data placed Kenya at the bottom of East Africa’s fertility rankings, with families averaging 3.65 children as modern family planning becomes more widely used.
The findings come from The Power of Choice: Reproductive Rights and the Demographic Transition, which says the country’s average is lower than that of its regional peers. It also shows a clear divide between rural and urban households: women in rural areas average 4.5 children, while urban women average 2.8.
UNFPA says Kenya’s family size has been falling steadily since the 1970s, when the average woman had more than eight births. Today, the report says, women have just under four births over a lifetime.
“Greater access to free or low-cost contraception and information about its use are partially credited for the reduction in fertility,” the report says in its Kenya section. Dan Okoro, a sexual and reproductive health specialist in the UNFPA office in Nairobi, said more Kenyans now prefer smaller families and better care for the children they already have. “More couples are choosing to use family planning to prevent, delay or space pregnancies,” she says.
Across 33 sub-Saharan African countries sampled by UNFPA, Rwanda follows Kenya with an average fertility rate of 3.95, while Ethiopia stands at 3.75. The rest of the countries in the sample are above four children per woman.
Tanzania’s average fertility rate is 4.6, while Uganda’s is 4.95. In rural Tanzania, the figure rises to 5.7 children, and in rural Uganda it reaches 5.9, the highest in the region. Burundi averages 4.9 children, while Sudan and Eritrea both stand at 4.6.
The report also says Kenya has made major gains in contraceptive use. About 55 per cent of married women use a modern contraceptive method, ahead of Rwanda at 49 per cent, Tanzania at 33 per cent and Uganda at 31 per cent.
Rachel Muthui, a volunteer at Family Health Option Kenya, a UNFPA-supported youth health centre, said attitudes have shifted sharply. “Taboos surrounding family planning are generally a thing of the past,” she says.
The UNFPA findings echo a 2018 research by Performance Monitoring and Accountability (PMA 2020), which also showed a higher share of married women in Kenya using contraceptives.
Ms Muthui said family planning is also helping teenage girls avoid pregnancy and stay in school. “Young women now feel empowered and are able to make their own decisions. Family planning services are also helping teenage girls avoid pregnancy and complete their education, equipping them to get good jobs,” she adds.
The report notes that in all but five East African countries, more women in urban areas than in rural areas say they do not want more than four children, with Rwanda as the exception.
It adds that the mean ideal number of children for women aged 15–49 varies widely by country and social class, ranging from 3.6 in Rwanda to 9.5 in Niger. “Women’s mean desired number of children is below four only in Kenya (3.9), Malawi (3.9) and Rwanda (3.6). Married men typically prefer more children than married women,” the report says.
Rwanda is the exception, where women prefer 3.6 children on average compared with men’s 3.1. In Burundi, men and women both prefer 4.3 children. Chad records the highest number preferred by married men at 13.2.
UNFPA links higher fertility in rural areas to household dependence and the reproductive norms that come with it. But the report says that dependence is easing as formal education expands and more people build wealth in the modern economy.
“Everywhere in the region, those who have at least a secondary education want — and have — fewer children than those with a primary education or less,” the report notes, adding that wealthier people also tend to prefer smaller families. It also says demand for children is shaped by age, with younger generations generally preferring fewer children than their parents did.
