Kenya's Close Presidential Election ¶
With the August 9 General Election just nine weeks away, Kenya is on the cusp of a historic presidential contest. The two main candidates, Raila Odinga of Azimio la Umoja One Kenya Coalition and William Ruto of Kenya Kwanza Alliance, are locked in a dead heat, with recent opinion polls showing a razor-thin margin of difference.
According to a survey conducted by Infotrak for Nation Media Group on May 12, 2022, both Raila and Ruto are commanding 42% of the vote, while a Radio Africa Group poll published in the Star on May 25, 2022, had Ruto leading with 43% and Raila trailing at 42%. A TIFA survey conducted on May 18, 2022, had Raila commanding a 39% lead and Ruto trailing at 35%.
The similarity of campaign issues between the two candidates is a major factor contributing to the close election. Both Raila and Ruto are focusing on economic issues, with Raila promising to address the cost of living and lift up over eight million Kenyans from poverty through direct cash transfers. Ruto, on the other hand, is talking about building the economy from below and addressing unemployment.
However, the similarities do not end there. Both candidates have avoided difficult governance issues, with Ruto not prioritizing accountability and the fight against corruption. Raila, on the other hand, appears caught between a rock and a hard place, unable to bolt out and talk about governance failure in President Uhuru Kenyatta's government due to his support for the President.
As a result, voters are left with a choice between two candidates who are similar in many ways. Individuals facing charges of corruption are on both sides, and individuals with criminal cases weighing on their necks are also to be found on both sides. The rent-seeking business elite who thrive on manipulating policy formulation to make profits through government contracts dominate both sides.
Furthermore, voters and candidates do not care about the credibility of elections. Even voters themselves are not concerned about how their candidates will win – all they want is a win. This lack of interest in credibility could lead to new forms of voter apathy, with many giving up because even candidates for lower-level seats are not promising to serve the purpose that elections serve.
